In the dying days of the federal election, a minority government in Ottawa is looking more likely.
Conservative leader Andrew Scheer has said he will not reach out to the Bloc Quebec for support should he form a minority government.
UNB Saint John political science professor J.P. Lewis thinks it will be hard for the Tories to stay in power if they don’t look for help from the smaller parties.
“We can go back to think how the Harper minority government stayed in power with Liberal support sometimes. The dynamics of this parliament I think will feel a lot different when we look at those as precedents,” Lewis said.
Lewis doesn’t think former U.S. President Barack Obama sending a supportive tweet for Justin Trudeau on Twitter is a bad thing but it may not have a huge impact.
“I don’t think it’s a gamechanger or anything in terms of providing Trudeau with the type of push he needs to find some momentum that he hasn’t been able to get throughout the campaign,” Lewis said.
Lewis says a lot of attention may be focused on New Brunswick next week given our recent experience with a minority government one year ago.
He doesn’t think this campaign has been particularly nasty but in today’s politics, you have the amplification of social media.
“There also seems to be a bit of animosity between Trudeau and Scheer and that seems to play out when they are talking about each other and when they faced off in debates. I don’t think it’s necessarily new,” Lewis said.
Lewis feels the way this campaign has gone there has been a bit more of a focus on the unpleasant than debating policy differences.
He says it’s tough to predict a winner for Saint John-Rothesay and notes Fundy Royal and New Brunswick Southwest are historically Conservative ridings.
“It appeared that so much of the momentum in 2015 really had to do with the popularity of the leader, Justin Trudeau, and if we believe the polls that the enthusiasm for Trudeau has decreased to an extent, that’s a real test on the local incumbents,” Lewis said.
Lewis notes incumbent Liberal MP Wayne Long won by a wider margin in 2015 and he thinks it will be an interesting test to see how the Trudeau brand affects local candidates.
He says from a Conservative perspective, it’s hard to imagine them winning the most seats and not winning a seat like Saint John-Rothesay.
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