N.B. Begins Monitoring Water Levels

The New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization launched River Watch 2020 on Monday, looking ahead to the potential for historic flooding for a third straight year in the province.

Director Greg MacCallum said there is a lot of snow to melt and some of it flows into Saint John River from other tributaries, including the northern portion of Maine.

“As is always the case, part of the ingredients [for flooding] is precipitation and whether or not a melt resulting from increased temperatures coincides with a rainfall event,” MacCallum said.

He adds that is what determines the magnitude of what ends up in the river system.

MacCallum describes the subtle differences between the back-to-back years of historic flooding with 2018 being very fast with a rapid melt and water levels which rose dramatically and quickly.

“In 2019, we had a much longer period of preparedness where we knew in advance that we were going to have flooding, but we had time to take preparatory actions,” MacCallum said.

Meteorologist Jill Maepea of Environment Canada said winter has been slightly warmer than normal with an average temperature of 1.4°C above normal.

Snow depths are slightly above normal with Edmundston currently at 86 centimetres on the ground where the normal amount is 67 centimetres.

Fredericton has slightly more snow than normal with 25 centimetres on the ground.

Water resources specialist Jasmin Boisvert of Environment and Local Government said there are more than 250 millimetres of snow/water equivalent in northern Maine and the Acadian Peninsula with significantly less water equivalent as you move south.

“The most important driver of flooding is day-to-day weather which is unpredictable more than a few days out. The amount of snow is not a good predictor of flooding. Regardless of amounts there could be a significant flood, not flood at all or somewhere in between,” Boisvert said.

Geomatics engineer Bernie Connors with Service New Brunswick said they can show 10 days of data this year, compared to six days in 2019.

Connors said the communities of Gagetown and Hampton will be added to their flood forecasts this year.