Several trees in King's Square in Saint John were blown over by high winds during hurricane Dorian on Sept. 7, 2019. (Image: Brad Perry)
Forecasters in Canada and the United States are predicting another active Atlantic hurricane season this year.
Bob Robichaud, a warning preparedness meteorologist with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, said there is a 60 per cent chance of an above-average season and a 30 per cent chance of a near-normal season.
Early projections show 13 to 19 named storms will form, of which six to 10 will become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes. On average, there are 12 names storms in the Atlantic, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
Robichaud said there are several factors which determine what a particular season could look like, including water temperature and wind shear.
“Water temperature in the Atlantic right now is slightly above average and is predicted to remain warmer than average over the course of the hurricane season,” said Robichaud.
Robichaud said they expect to see large areas of low wind shear, which means small changes in wind speed and direction with altitude.
“In an environment where we have low wind shear, we tend to have more hurricanes form on a given year,” he said.
Did yours make the list? Here are the storm names for the 2020 Atlantic #HurricaneSeason according to the @WMO:
Find this graphic for download at https://t.co/2MyqusBVZT#HurricaneOutlook #HurricaneNames pic.twitter.com/DrEvBCjdvQ
— NOAA (@NOAA) May 21, 2020
As for how many of these storms could have some sort of impact on Canada, Robichaud said that is where things get tricky.
He said there is a “very, very faint correlation” between the number of storms which form and how many enter Canadian waters.
Robichaud pointed to the 2010, 2011 and 2012 hurricane seasons, which each saw 19 named storms. A total of three storms entered Canadian waters in 2010, eight in 2011 and five in 2012.
“Prior to the start of the season, it’s impossible to say exactly where these storms are gonna go. You can have years that look very similar in terms of the number of storms, but they actually go in a totally different location,” he said.
Hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30, but for the sixth straight year, a named storm formed in May. Tropical Storm Arthur briefly popped up this week but did not make landfall.
That is not usually an indicator for the season, said Robichaud, as these storms tend to be short-lived and weak.
Robichaud said his key message for Canadians, especially those living on the East Coast, is to prepare ahead of time.
“We kind of go with the idea that you prepare the same way every year for hurricane season. I think this year, if anything, it’s gona be even more critical to prepare.”
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