Liberal ‘Error’ Cost Vickers A Seat: Poli Sci Professor

The Progressive Conservatives pulled off “quite a remarkable win” in Monday’s election, according to one political science professor.

The Tories, led by Blaine Higgs, ended the night with a 27-seat majority government, five more seats than what they received two years ago.

Tom Bateman, who teaches at St. Thomas University in Fredericton, said he wondered about the wisdom of calling an “unnecessary election” during the pandemic.

“Back in August, it was quite reasonable to think that the government would be punished for calling a campaign at such a risky time, but it turns out not to be the case,” said Bateman.

“In the end, it was a stroke of genius really on his part.”

The party took advantage of the premier’s recent prominence, his collaborative manner of handling COVID-19, and the relative inexperience of the Liberal leader, he said.

Liberals Win Just 17 Seats

Kevin Vickers, who was acclaimed as Liberal leader just 17 months before the election, lost by 1,300 votes in his riding of Miramichi to People’s Alliance incumbent Michelle Conroy. The party won just 17 of the province’s 49 seats in the election.

Bateman said he believes the Liberals made an error by getting Vickers to run in Miramichi, despite that being his hometown.

The safe riding, he said, would have been Shediac Bay-Dieppe, where former leader Brian Gallant ran and succeeded.

“It would be a safe seat, he’d have a clear path into the legislature, and he wouldn’t have to campaign there. He could spend all of his time helping his colleagues in the other ridings,” said Bateman.

Instead, the Liberals chose Progressive Conservative defector Robert Gauvin as their candidate in Shediac Bay-Dieppe.

Bateman questioned if this was the price Gauvin required for agreeing to run as a Liberal in the election.

“Mr. Gauvin cruises to victory, but the leader loses against a very popular, hard-working MLA in Michelle Conroy. I think the Liberals may consider that to have been a bad mistake,” he said.

Who Will Replace Vickers?

Vickers resigned as party leader shortly after his election loss and took full responsibility for the results.

At this point, Bateman said there is no obvious choice as to who might replace Vickers as the leader.

“It will have to be someone who not only can depend upon good support from the north and northeast of the province but who would really be effective in the Anglophone southwest part of the province, too,” he said.

Bateman noted that Vickers was acclaimed as the leader, meaning he had no chance to campaign within the party and get his name out there.

He said it would do a lot of good for the party to have a leadership race with several candidates.

Third Parties

Both the Green Party and the People’s Alliance of New Brunswick held on to some of their seats in Monday’s election.

The Green Party retained all three of its seats while the People’s Alliance held on to two of its three ridings.

“Their status goes down, for sure, and I expect a little bit more polarization,” said Bateman. “I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the government now takes a much more open/conciliatory approach to the francophone parts of New Brunswick where it has not done that well.”

Because the PCs no longer need People’s Alliance support to stay alive as they did in a minority government, Bateman said the PANB will have work to do to stay relevant and visible.

As for the Greens, Bateman said their performance was not nearly as good as leader David Coon had hoped, but they did manage to not lose any of their seats.