Minority governments usually don’t last more than a couple of years and that anniversary is fast approaching for the federal Liberals.
Election speculation has been fuelled by numerous federal funding announcements and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s recent campaign-style swing across Canada.
Associate political science professor Mario Levesque at Mount Allison University believes dropping the writ will likely happen in August.
“Which means we’ll probably be going to the polls in mid-September at the earliest and probably the first of October at the latest, I would think.”
With COVID-19 cases dropping, vaccinations rising and the country slowly reopening, Levesque doesn’t see a lot of risk of holding an election later this summer.
“The risk right now is minimal and it probably comes down to the calculation of where they stand in the polls and if it looks good, they will likely want to move to an election.”
The Liberals are leading in most recent national opinion polls with the Conservatives running second followed by the New Democrats and the Greens.
In a regional breakdown, polls show the Tories are in first place in the Prairies.
Levesque believes the election campaign will focus on outstanding reconciliation issues with First Nations such as upgrades to water and sewer infrastructure.
He also sees last week’s federal announcements targeting urban transportation as part of a climate change strategy.
