‘I Think People Will Be Compliant’: Shephard On New Measures

New Brunswickers are getting used to the new “Winter Action Plan” for COVID-19 which went into effect on the weekend.

The three-tier alert system has different levels of restrictions depending on the current situation with the pandemic.

All of New Brunswick is currently under Level 1 — which officials said is the “least restrictive” of the three phases.

Under this level, up to 20 people are allowed at informal indoor household gatherings, and 50 at informal outdoor gatherings. This replaces the “Steady 20” that was in place before the new measures took effect on Saturday night.

Health Minister Dorothy Shephard said enforcement of the gathering limits will likely be “random” with officers focusing their efforts primarily on those who are supposed to be isolating.

“On the whole, I think people will be compliant. They understand what’s at stake and nobody wants to go to more stricter phases,” Shephard said on Friday when announcing the new plan, adding that gatherings are the “biggest risk.”

Other measures included under Level 1 include wearing masks in outdoor public spaces when physical distancing cannot be maintained, as well as physical distancing in stores that do not require proof of vaccine.

Why start at Level 1?

Dr. Jennifer Russell, the province’s chief medical officer of health, was asked why the province is starting at the last restrictive level when hospitalizations are so high.

As of Sunday, there were 46 people in the hospital, including 16 in intensive care and nine on a ventilator. Twenty-two of those in the hospital were over the age of 60 while one is under the age of 19.

With 118 new cases and 87 more recoveries reported, the number of active cases stood at 752.

Russell said they are “struggling with the numbers” in terms of how many active cases the province can have at one time, knowing a certain portion of those individuals will end up in the hospital or an intensive care unit.

“We haven’t really seen that baseline number of active cases to go down as much as we’d like, so we’re continuing to see admissions to hospital,” said Russell.

“But by bolstering Level 1 in terms of adding extra measures, those are the things that we’re hoping will get those numbers down. We don’t really want to go to Level 2 or Level 3 unless absolutely necessary. Are we close to that right now? We’re closer than we’re comfortable being to it.”

Levels 2 and 3 have increased restrictions, such as reduced household bubbles, lower capacity in public spaces, and no travel in and out of those areas.

A breakdown of the different measures in each of the three alert levels can be found online.

Transitioning from one level to another

There are several triggers that will prompt Public Health to conduct a risk assessment to determine if a zone or region needs to move into or out of an alert level.

Moving from Level 1 to Level 2:

• Increasing seven-day average of new cases
• Positivity rate of 10 per cent provincially or in any single zone
• 70 active hospitalizations provincially or 30 active ICU hospitalizations
• Public Health resources unable to contact cases or sites of exposure within a reasonable time frame

Moving from Level 2 to Level 3:

• Increasing seven-day average of new cases
• Positivity rate of 15 per cent provincially or in any single zone
• 100 active hospitalizations provincially or 50 active ICU hospitalizations
• Increasing seven-day average new hospital admissions
• Public Health resources unable to maintain and manage contact tracing

Moving back a level would require a decreasing seven-day average of new cases and hospital admissions.

The province saw a spike in cases after the holidays last December, and Russell said they are “absolutely” concerned it could happen again this year, especially with the new variant in play.

“We have several weeks to really clamp down in terms of our personal choices and decisions around managing these risks right now as individuals to protect our community and to protect our hospital system,” she said.

Shephard, meanwhile, encouraged people to try and limit the number of people that they are around as much as possible.

“That can go a long way and it’s sometimes it’s a very easy thing to do. We know it can’t happen all the time, but it’s a little thing that can make a big difference.”