Forecasters at Environment Canada are keeping a close eye on hurricane Ernesto and how it could impact the Maritimes.
The storm, currently impacting the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, strengthened from a tropical storm into a hurricane late Wednesday morning.
The latest forecast shows Ernesto strengthening into a Category 3 storm before slamming into Bermuda later this week.
From there, the latest models show the storm heading north toward the Maritimes early next week.
Jill Maepea, a meteorologist at Environment Canada, said there remains a lot of uncertainty at this point.
“A lot of our models are indicating it will take a sharp turn to the east and stay out to sea, however, there’s also some models that say that turn won’t be as sharp and may impact our areas,” Maepea told our newsroom.
Nova Scotia is currently within the outer edge of the “cone of uncertainty,” which represents the most probable track of the centre of the storm.
Because there is still so much uncertainty, Maepea said it is too soon to say what impacts, if any, Ernesto could have on our region.
However, she noted it does look like any impacts would happen Monday or Tuesday, and that Ernesto would likely no longer be a tropical cyclone at that point.
“We would see a post-tropical system at that point, which would just mean the structure of the system would have changed just due to our colder waters,” said Maepea.
Post-tropical systems, however, can continue to produce high winds and heavy rains.
Maepea said the storm’s track and potential impacts should become more certain later this week.
In the meantime, Atlantic Canadians are encourged to be prepared for Ernesto or any other tropical system that could impact our region during hurricane season.
Dorecasters in the United States are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season this year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted up to 24 named storms. Thirteen of those storms are expected to become hurricanes with seven being classified as major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
While hurricane season runs until the end of November, most tropical cyclone activity occurs between mid-August and mid-October.
