Election Speculation Grows In N.B.

Next month’s provincial budget could be the last one for the Higgs government.

The Liberals have said they will vote against the budget — no matter what is in it — over the government’s now-halted health-care reforms.

If the budget were to be defeated, the government would fall and a provincial election would be called.

But J.P. Lewis, an associate political science professor at UNB Saint John, said the Liberals would need help from another party to do that.

“Even though we might think the Green Party would and Kris Austin [of the People’s Alliance] has been messaging that he’s starting to lose confidence in the government, you have to wonder what the Green Party and the People’s Alliance think about having an election,” said Lewis.

Lewis says a strategic move for the Higgs government would be to introduce a budget, even knowing it might fall, and use it as their campaign platform.

If the government were to fall, Lewis said this would be the first real political test for new Liberal leader Kevin Vickers, who faced little opposition in gaining the party’s leadership.

“Going forward, even though in certain parts of the province these were very unpopular intended policy moves, Vickers now will need to present what the Liberals would do, what kind of premier would Kevin Vickers be, why should we have an election,” he said.

Lewis said since minority governments usually only last about two years — an anniversary the Higgs government would reach this fall — it feels like just a matter of time before an election will happen.

“Higgs all along has said he’s not afraid to have another election, so I don’t think he’s in a position like we may have seen former premiers and prime ministers where they were in a minority position and they would basically do whatever was possible to hold on to power,” he said.

“I think it feels like he will start to turn the corner, if he hasn’t already, and just get ready for the next election.”

The provincial budget will be presented on March 10. MLAs would likely vote on it 10 days later.